A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
